Are home resales rebounding?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.

“Existing homes” are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.

A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by “distressed sales”. Distressed homes — homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale – accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August.

At the current rate of sales, the national home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.5 months. This pace is a full month faster as compared to July, and the lowest home supply reading since March 2011.  

Other noteworthy facts from the August Existing Home Sales report :

• There are currently 3.58 million existing homes for sale nationwide
• 29 percent of home buyers paid cash in August
• Real estate investors bought 22% of homes in August, up from 18% in July

Home prices throughout Mountain View are based on Supply and Demand and, at least right now, it appears the supply is dropping. Furthermore, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, it’s reasonable to expect demand to pick up. These two conditions should lead home prices higher.

If you’re shopping for a home right now, recognize the trends and work them to your advantage. It may be “cheapest” to buy now.

After 3 straight months of gains, the Pending Home Sales Index slipped 1 percent in July. The monthly report is published by the National Association of REALTORS® and measures the number of home under contract to sell nationwide.

The Pending Home Sales Index is closely watched by Wall Street and analysts because it’s a forward-looking housing market indicator. Unlike most housing market data, though, Pending Home Sales forecasts a future housing market event. In this case, the Existing Home Sales report.

In its methodology, the Pending Home Sales Index states that 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months, with most of the remaining home going to closing within Months 3 and 4.

We would expect home sales data to taper into the fall buying season, but this year, they may taper more than normal. This is because, in a separate report, the National Association of REALTORS® said that contract cancellation rates are running high.

As compared to a 4 percent contract cancellation rate in May 2011, June and July both registered 16 percent. This means that fewer homes tallied as part of July’s Pending Home Sales Index will show up as “closed sales” this fall.

Contracts can be canceled for any number of reasons including more stringent mortgage guidelines, appraisals falling short of the purchase price, and changing mortgage loan limits.

For home buyers in Mountain View , the Pending Home Sales Index may represent an opportunity. Not only are fewer homes going under contract nationwide, but with cancellation rates spiking, sellers may be more willing to “make a deal”.

Note, though, like all real estate, the pace at which homes go under contract is a “local” statistic; you can’t assume national data applies to all markets equally. Your home market, for example, may out-perform — or under-perform — the national average.

For a closer look at what’s happening on your street including the speed at which homes are selling, talk to a local real estate agent.

Home resales slipped in July.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales nationwide fell to 4.67 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis last month. It’s the fourth straight month below the 5 million mark, and the report’s lowest reading since November 2010.

An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied or owned.

In addition, the Existing Home Sales report showed home supplies rising nationwide. At the current pace of sales, in other words, the complete, national “For Sale” inventory would be exhausted in 9.4 months. This, too, is the worst reading since November 2010.

On a units basis, however, the number of homes for sale actually fell in July. As compared to June, home resale inventory dropped 65,000 units to 3.65 million.

From these figures, we can infer that, despite low mortgage rates and lagging home values, buyer activity is slowing in San Francisco Bay Area and nationwide. This may be seasonal, or it may be a long-term trend.

Either way, there’s opportunity for today’s home buyers.

With mortgage rates at all-time lows, home affordability is peaking. More households can afford housing payments than during any time in history and with the fall season approaching, buyers in Palo Alto may find contracts negotiations to be more “friendly”.

This can mean lower sale prices and larger concessions from sellers — the hallmark of a Buyer’s Market.

It’s a good time to look at your options. Talk to your real estate agent and see what’s out there for you. Low home prices may persist, but low mortgage rates likely won’t.

Buyers are writing contracts at a furious pace nationwide.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month to reach its highest level since March.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. 

The forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is up 11 percent from its low of the year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, and well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.

Unfortunately, national data isn’t always helpful for buyers and sellers in Palo Alto and nationwide. To help make data more relevant, therefore, the official Pending Home Sales Index report includes a region-by-region breakdown. 

Between May and June 2011, results were mixed:

• Northeast Region: -0.4%
• Midwest Region : -3.7%
• South Region : +4.4%
• West Region : +6.4%

However, even the value of regional data may be dubious.

The West Region, for example, which showed big gains in June, is comprised of multiple states containing thousands of cities and towns. Some of those areas outperformed the region, and some of them underperformed. The Pending Home Sales Index doesn’t show which towns did which. It can’t.

For everyday buyers and sellers in Midtown Palo Alto , it’s the local data that matters.

The Pending Home Sales Index shows that more contracts were written in June than in April or May — a good sign for housing overall. And because 80% of all contracts close within 60 days, we can expect the summer’s home resale activity to be high.

This leads home prices higher.

With mortgage rates low and home sales spiking, now may be the best time to buy a home in 2011. Home prices appear to be rising and mortgage rates should, too.

Home resales slipped for the 3rd straight month, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Existing Home Sales posted a 1 percent drop from May as the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 4.77 million units. It’s the monthly report’s lowest reading since November 2010.

The report also showed the national supply of homes for sales rising to 9.5 months — also its highest reading since November 2010.

Home Supply is the amount of time it would take to exhaust the complete home inventory at the current pace of sales.

June’s Existing Home Sales data would have been stronger if not for a high contract cancellation rate. As compared to May’s 4 percent rate, June’s cancellation rate was 16 percent; an elevated figure that “stands out in contrast” to what’s typical, according to the REALTOR® trade group.

By region, home resale activity varied:

• Northeast : -5.2% from May 
• South :+0.5% from May
• Midwest : +1.0% from May
• West : -1.7% from May

This disparity from region-to-region highlights an important housing market concept. Namely, that all real estate is local. Because just as the Existing Home Sales varies on a regional level, it varies on a state-wide level, too.

What’s true for California housing is not necessarily what’s true for Florida housing, for example. Each of the 50 states has its own trends, and within those 50 states, there are thousands of cities and neighborhoods, each with their own trends, too.

The “national housing market” doesn’t exist, so national data is rendered somewhat useless.

For data in Mountain View or your local market, talk to your real estate agent.

April’s resales were revised lower, too.

Analysts were surprised by the figures because it runs counter to the National Association of REALTORS® monthly Pending Home Sales reports.

The association’s Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be a forward-looking indicator for the housing market because 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days and recent Pending Home Sales readings show an increase in “pending” homes.

This month’s Existing Home Sales, however, fell flat.

May’s drop in home resales wasn’t limited to a particular region or price point, either. All 4 geographic regions lag last May’s results. Five of the 6 valuation ranges fell, too.

• $0-$100,000 : +6.7 percent annual change
• $100,000-$250,000 : -21.6 percent annual change
• $250,000-$500,000 : -16.0 percent annual change
• $500,000-$750,000 : -11.0 percent annual change
• $750,000-$1,000,000 : -20.7 percent annual change
• $1,000,000 or more : -11.0 percent annual change

The Existing Home Sales report wasn’t all bad, however.

Although the months of housing stock rose to 9.3 in May, the number of homes for sale nationwide fell 1%. This suggests that there weren’t as many buyers in May as compared to April — a function of weather, jobs and the economy. Since April, the jobs market and the economy have shown steady, slow improvement and Mother Nature has been less destructive.

Home resales should rebound in June and July, therefore.

If you’re a buyer in today’s market, home supplies are higher and mortgage rates are lower. The combination makes for ample bargain-hunting. There’s excellent “deals” to be found in Mountain View. Ask your real estate agent for help in finding them.

The monthly index is published by the National Association of REALTORS® and measures the number of homes on which new contracts have been written.

It’s the association’s lone “forward-looking” report; meant to predict future, closed home sales. 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months.

Therefore, if the April Pending Home Sales Index is accurate, we should expect home sales to decline through June and July.

On a regional basis, “pending homes” varied. The Northeast Region posted growth. None others did.

• Northeast Region: +1.7% from March
• Midwest Region : -10.4% from March
• South Region : -17.2% from March
• West Region : -8.9% from March

But even regional data remains too broad to be useful to everyday buyers and sellers in the Mountain View market. Housing is local and that means that each block, of each street, in each city has its own market and economy. Grouping 9 states into a single “region” is neither helpful nor relevant.

That said, we can’t ignore the data in its entirety.

Housing is believed to be a key component in the nation’s economic recovery. Fewer home sales will retard growth, and slower growth leads mortgage rates down.

Home Affordability hit record-highs last quarter, and should do the same in this one. Homes now sell at discounts to prior prices and mortgage financing is cheap. Buyers tend to be drawn to favorable markets such as this, and that will pressure home prices higher.

If you’re in the market for a home today, conditions look good. Talk to your real estate agent to gauge your options.

The housing market recovery stalled last month. At least temporarily.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales slipped 1 percent in April from the month prior, falling to 5.05 million units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. The reading is exactly in-line with report’s 6-month average which also reads 5.05 million units.

The data may appear “average”, but there’s another angle to consider.

In April, as compared to March, the supply of existing homes for sales spiked. At the current pace of home sales, it would now take 9.2 months to exhaust today’s complete home inventory. This is almost one full month worse than March. It’s the worst home supply reading of the year.

There are also more homes “on the market” today than at any time since September 2010.

Other noteworthy statistics in the April Existing Home Sales report include:

• 31 percent of all homes sold in April were purchased with cash
• First-time home buyers bought 36 percent of all homes in April
• Distressed properties typically sold at a 20 percent discount

This “discount”, it should be noted, is a major reason why distressed properties accounted for 37 percent of the home resales in April. Home buyers are finding bargains when they’re willing to consider homes in various stages of foreclosure and short sale.

Overall, the April Existing Home Sales report represents opportunity for home buyers in and around San Jose. Home sales are stagnant, supplies are rising and there’s no shortage of properties from which to choose. Furthermore, mortgage rates remain low.

If you’re considering a home purchase this fall, home supply may not be as ample, and financing conditions may not be as favorable, post-Labor Day. Talk to your real estate agent about what’s possible today. You may want to move up your time frame.

The National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index rose for the third straight month last month.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 5 percent in March, posting its second-highest reading since April 2010. Not coincidentally, that month marked the expiration of last year’s federal home buyer tax credit.

Home buyers and sellers in Mountain View would do well to watch the Pending Home Sales Index each month. This is because — unlike most government and private data — the Pending Home Sales Index is a “forward-looking” indicator.

Because 80% of “pending” homes close within 2 months, and a significant share of the rest close within months 3 and 4, the Pending Home Sales Index tends to correlate to future strength (or weakness) in housing.

The Pending Home Sales Index, in other words, is an excellent precursor to the Existing Home Sales report, issued monthly.

By region, the Pending Home Sales Index varied last month.

• Northeast : -3.2% from February
• Southeast : +10.3% from February
• Midwest : +3.0% from February
• West : +3.1% from February

All 4 regions were worse from a year ago.

As with everything in housing, however, we must remember that real estate is neither national, nor regional. It’s local. Sales volume may be higher in areas like the Midwest, but that doesn’t mean that all Midwest markets are experiencing similar gains, if any gains at all.

To get local real estate data for Midtown Palo Alto, for example , talk to a real estate agent that specializes in that area. It’s the best way to know what’s happening on the street level.

Home resales rose 4 percent last month, according to the March Existing Home Sales report. A total of 5.1 million homes were sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis.

The strong results re-establish the national, long-term trend toward rising home resales.

March marked the 6th month out of eight in which sales volume has increased and sales are up 32 percent from July 2010 lows.

Home supply has resumed its downward trajectory, too.

At the current pace of sales, the entire home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.4 months. This is 0.1 months faster as compared to February, and a full month faster than the 12-month average.

The Existing Home Sales report also included a breakdown by buyer-type.

• First-time buyers bought 33% of homes, down from 34% in February
• Repeat buyers bought 45% of homes, down from 47% in February
• Investors bought 22% of homes, up from 19% in February

35 percent of buyers paid in cash.

And, perhaps most noteworthy, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 40 percent of March home resales were “distressed properties”. Distressed homes include foreclosures, short sales, and REO and typically sell at discounts “in the vicinity” of 20 percent.

Home prices in Palo Alto are based on the basic economic theory of Supply and Demand. So, with home supplies dropping and demand for homes rising, it’s reasonable to expect home values to rise later this year.

If you’re in the market for a home, play the recent trends to your advantage. Today, homes are affordable and mortgage rates are low. This may not be the case later this year. The best “deals” of the year may be what you buy now.