Archive for February, 2010
The Best And Worst Cities For Commuters (2010 Edition)
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According to the Census Bureau, 2.8 million people commute to work 90 minutes or more each day, in each direction.
Now, your daily commute may not be as long, but time spent in cars, trains and buses is time away from work and from family. Drive-time can affect a person’s Quality of Life and it’s one reason why Forbes Magazine’s Best and Worst Commutes is worth reviewing.
Measuring travel time, road congestion and travel delays in the 60 largest metropolitan areas, Forbes ranks city commutes from best-to-worst with Salt Lake City topping the list and Tampa-St. Petersburg finishing it.
The Top 5 Commutes, as compiled by Forbes:
- Salt Lake City, Utah
- Buffalo-Niagara Falls, New York
- Rochester, New York
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York
The bottom 5 are Tampa-St. Petersburg, Detroit, Atlanta, Orlando, and Dallas-Forth Worth.
Long commutes shouldn’t deter you from moving to a particular city, but the potential commute should be consideration. Before making an offer on your next home, make a rush-hour commute to work from your potential new neighborhood. Then imagine doing it every day.
You can read the complete Forbes list of Best and Worst Cities for Commuters on its website.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 16, 2010
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Mortgage markets worsened last week on general profit-taking in the U.S. bond market, combined with talk of a coordinated rescue effort for Greece and its debt burden. Mortgage-backed bonds sold off, causing conventional and FHA mortgage rates to rise.
There wasn’t much hard data on which to trade last week, either, so momentum took markets farther than they otherwise might have moved on their own. It marked the first time in 5 weeks that rates rose for San Francisco Bay Area rate shoppers.
This week, data returns. Expect mortgage market movement.
Some of the week’s more important releases include:
- Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
- The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
- Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)
Inclement weather may have impacted last month’s Housing Starts reading so pay closer attention to Building Permits. Permits precede actual construction and can be more indicative of economic optimism. If permit readings are strong, it should be a negative for mortgage rates.
The same is true for the FOMC Minutes.
Last month’s FOMC post-meeting press-release was decidedly middle-of-the-road, but the statement is just a summary of the Fed’s 2-day meeting, boiled down to a few paragraphs. Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Minutes will reveal the deeper discussions among members of the Fed. Wall Street will mine it for clues about the future of the economy.
If Wall Street senses optimism coming from the Fed — again — mortgage rates should rise.
And, lastly, keep an eye on Thursday and Friday’s inflation data. Inflation is bad for mortgage rates so a higher-than-expected reading should spark a bond market sell-off.
Since mid-December, mortgage rates have moved within a tight range and there’s little reason for rates will break this range this week. However, we are near the top of the channel. If you know you’re going to need a rate locked soon, it’s probably best to do early in the week.
How Rising Consumer Sentiment Is Linked To Higher Home Prices
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Consumer Sentiment has been on the rise since last February and it’s something to which Palo Alto home buyers should pay attention.
The affordability of your next home may hinge on consumer confidence.
As the economy recovers from a near-the-brink recession, many of the elements of a full recovery are in place. Business investment is returning, household spending is expanding, and financial systems are gaining strength.
Consumer confidence is at a 2-year high.
What’s missing from the recovery, though, is jobs growth. Another net 20,000 jobs were lost in January. Data like that hinders economic growth.
That said, twenty-thousand jobs lost is a much better figure than the several hundred thousand that were shed per month throughout early-2009, but it’s still a net negative number. Not only does household income drop when Americans lose jobs but so does the average American’s confidence in his or her own economic future.
This is one reason why jobs growth is so closely watched by Wall Street — jobs are linked to higher confidence levels which, in turn, is believed to spur consumer spending.
Consumer spending represents 70% of the U.S. economy.
As confidence rises, it could be good news for the economy, but bad news for home buyers. More spending expands the economy and, all things equal, that leads mortgage rates higher.
Same for home prices. More confidence means more buyers which, in turn, squeezes the supply-and-demand curve in favor of sellers.
Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its February Consumer Sentiment survey. If the reading is higher-than-expected, prepare for mortgage rates to rise and home affordability to worsen.
In Pictures: The Severity Of The Foreclosure Crisis Depends On Where You Live
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Foreclosures stories dominate the national housing news. It seems at least one foreclosure-related story makes its way to the front page or the nightly news every week.
But for as much as the foreclosure filing statistics can be astounding — over 300,000 homes were served last month alone — the prevalence of foreclosures depends on where you live.
As reported by RealtyTrac, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country’s foreclosure-related activity last month.
- California : 22.7 percent of all activity
- Florida : 14.9 percent of all activity
- Arizona : 6.7 percent of all activity
- Illinois : 5.7 percent of all activity
The other 46 states (and Washington D.C.) claimed the remaining 49.9%.
However, just because foreclosures are concentrated geographically, that doesn’t make them less important to homebuyers in Mountain View and around the country. There’s been more than 1.4 million foreclosure filings in the last 12 months and that’s a figure that can’t be ignored.
Distressed properties now play a role in one-third of all home resales.
Therefore, if you’re in the market for a foreclosed home, here’s a few things to keep in mind.
- Properties are usually sold “as-is” and may not be up to living standards. Be sure to physically inspect the home before buying it.
- Buying a home from a bank is rarely as streamlined as buying from an individual homeowner. Be prepared for delays and long closings.
- Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Ask your real estate agent how to access the complete foreclosure inventory.
In order to use the federal homebuyer tax credit, you must be under contract for a home by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010. That doesn’t leave much time to find a bank-owned home and make it to closing. If you’re serious about buying foreclosures, it’s probably best to start your search soon.
Separating FHA Fact From Fiction : Mortgage Insurance Premiums
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The mortgage lending landscape changes a lot. Rates and guidelines are in constant flux, and it creates preparedness challenges for buyers in San Jose that aren’t paying in cash.
The loan you get today won’t always be the loan you get tomorrow.
Because of how frequently bank rules are changing, it can be hard for laypersons to distinguish between mortgage fact and fiction of “what’s coming next”.
Recently, we saw this with respect to FHA home loans.
January 20, 2010, the FHA issued a press release with new lending guidelines. Specifically, it announced 3 changes that will be effective starting April 5, 2010:
- Upfront mortgage insurance premiums increase from 1.75% to 2.25%
- Allowable seller concession reduced from 6% to 3%
- FICO scores of 580 or lower are subject to a minimum 10% downpayment
But, also in its official statement, the FHA announced it would ask Congress for permission to raise monthly mortgage insurance premiums. This is where the rumors started.
Nestled on page 348 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011, in a section titled Special Topics, there is a 1-paragraph notation that details the FHA’s petition.
- Raise monthly premiums by roughly 0.30%, or $25 per $100,000 borrowed per month
- Lower upfront mortgage insurance premiums by 1.25%, or $1,250 per $100,000 borrowed at closing
For now, the request is neither approved nor acknowledged by Congress. It’s merely a request. And in the event that Congress does approves it, that doesn’t mean that FHA has to stand by its initial projections.
Truth is, about the only thing we know about the future of FHA lending is that, come April 5, 2010, borrowing money is going to be tougher, and more expensive. These are the facts as we know them today.
Homebuyers should plan accordingly.
Palo Alto Mom of three, FHA loan officer
