Archive for December, 2009
When It’s A Holiday Week, Mortgage Rate Shoppers Should Be Extra Vigilant
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Mortgage pricing worsened Monday, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since October.
The day’s action was drastic, too.
Some banks issued as many as 3 rate sheets Monday — each worse than the preceding and one reason why rates got so bad, so quickly, is because this week marks the beginning of mini-Vacation Season on Wall Street.
Between now and January 4, 2010, be prepared for big swings in pricing from day-to-day. Shopping for a mortgage could be a challenge.
The relationship between vacation days and mortgage rate volatility is rooted in how mortgage rates are “made”.
- Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security that is sold on Wall Street
- Mortgage-backed bonds can’t sell without a bond buyer and a bond seller agreeing to a specific sale price
So, during vacation week, when the total number of market participants are less, there are fewer opportunities for buyers and sellers to meet at a specific price. As a result, bond prices rise and fall with a higher velocity than on a “normal” day. Rallies and momentum plays are exaggerated, too.
Now, mortgage market action like this can work in your favor, or it could work out of your favor. Unfortunately, on Monday, rates moved out of favor.
This rest of this week is stacked with market-moving economic data. The data could be better-than-expected, or worse-than-expected. Either way, markets will react a little more feverishly than normal. Therefore, if you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it.
Before long, the rate could be gone.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 21, 2009
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Mortgage markets improved last week as pricing followed a roller coaster-like pattern. After touching a 6-week high Tuesday, rates rallied to weekly lows Thursday, and then jumped back higher Friday.
Despite the improvement last week overall, mortgage pricing remains significantly worse from the all-time lows set in late-November.
Oddly, last week’s most prominent mortgage-related story wasn’t the most influential one.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee adjourned from a two-day meeting. It voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current target zone of 0.000-0.250 percent. This wasn’t news, per se — markets expected the “no change” vote.
However, in its accompanying press release, the Fed appeared more rosy in its economic outlook, citing improving labor markets and low levels of inflation. Results like this are a mixed bag for rate shoppers, but is generally welcomed as good news.
Rates were unchanged after the FOMC release.
The bigger story last week comes from Greece.
Concerns for the country’s debt burden have been in play for weeks, but last week, Standard & Poor’s officially downgraded Greece’s debt rating. The move triggered concerns regarding broader Eurozone debt, especially considering the recent issues in Dubai.
U.S. mortgage markets benefitted from Greece’s troubles as “safe haven” attracted investors, driving down rates Thursday afternoon.
Debt concerns should remain in focus this week. Furthermore, there’s a bevy of domestic data that could swing rates in either direction, too. Most notably, watch for Tuesday’s housing data, Wednesday’s inflation data, and Thursday’s consumer confidence data. Each can be a powerful influence on rates.
There will be less volume on Wall Street because of Christmas and less volume tends to spur mortgage rate volatility. Be wary of swings in either direction.
Markets close early Thursday and will be closed Friday.
Housing Starts Jump; Home Sellers Lament.
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Housing Starts jumped last month as builders got back to business. It’s a telling sign for the economy, but bad news for next season’s sellers.
With more homes coming online, home prices may be slow to rise nationwide.
A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started. In November, starts rose by nearly 9 percent while remaining within the same tight range we’ve seen since June.
More interesting that Housing Starts, though, is the accompanying data for Housing Permits. After a 5-month plateau, Housing Permits finally broke through, posting its largest number in 12 months.
This, too, bodes poorly for sellers.
Housing permits are precursors to housing starts so because the number of permits are higher today, we expect that the number of starts will be higher just a few months from now.
According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.
More permits means more starts which, in turn, leads to a larger home inventory. And when home supplies grow faster than the home demand, prices fall.
Throughout the early part of 2010, low mortgage rates and federal tax credits should help hold demand high but if builders flood the market with new, quality product, sellers may find that they’ve lost some of their leverage.
For home buyers, the rise in starts is welcomed.
A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (December 16, 2009 Edition)
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The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to pick up”, that the jobs markets is getting better, and that housing market has shown “some signs of improvement” lately.
It’s the fourth straight statement in which the Fed speaks optimistically about the U.S. economy — a signal that the worst of the recession is likely behind us.
The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several, including:
- Tight credit conditions for consumers
- Reluctancy of businesses to hire new workers
- Lower overall housing wealth
The message’s overall tone remained positive, however and inflation appears to be held in check.
Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market. That plan — due to expire at the end of March 2010 — should be noted by today’s homebuyers. Fed insiders estimate that the program suppressed rates by 1 percent through 2009.
Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is negative. Mortgage rates are rising this afternoon.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is January 26-27, 2010.
Fannie Mae Gets Tough(er) On Borrowers. Again.
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Fannie Mae raised the bar for mortgage applicants this past weekend. Getting approved for a home loan just got harder.
In its official announcement, Fannie Mae says the updates minimize long-term lending risks. If that’s the case, this won’t be the last guideline change Fannie Mae makes — especially with loans defaulting at an above-normal clip.
The immediate changes are major. The first pertains to credit scores.
Effective December 13, 2009, the bulk of Fannie Mae’s loans require a 620 credit score minimum. There are very few exceptions.
A second relates to loans with private mortgage insurance.
Homeowners whose loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent now have a choice:
- Pay higher mortgage insurance premiums month-after-month
- Pay a one-time fee paid at closing to compensate for higher risk
Both options result in higher consumer loan costs.
A third change concerns maximum debt-to-income ratio. Fannie Mae will no longer approve loans with debt ratios exceeding 45 percent except with very strong assets and very high credit scores.
In no case whatsoever may debt-to-income exceed 50 percent.
There are other changes, too, including the elimination of seldom-used mortgage products and additional risk-based fees for “expanded level” mortgage approvals. These updates affect just a small part of the population.
So, home prices are rebounding, mortgage rates are low, and — for 5 more months at least — there’s a federal tax credit for qualified buyers. You don’t have to buy a home now, but with mortgage guidelines sure to tighten in 2010, now may be a better time than later.
The best “deal” won’t matter if you can’t get qualified on your mortgage.
Palo Alto Mom of three, FHA loan officer
