Archive for August, 2009
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 31, 2009
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Mortgage markets were flat last week overall, although mortgage rates were somewhat volatile from day-to-day.
For rate shoppers, the best pricing was available Monday morning and Friday afternoon — everything in between was slightly elevated.
It’s the second consecutive week in which rates finished unchanged.
There was a string of good news last week about the economy, led by housing. New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and the Case-Shiller Index all surprised to the high-side and consumer confidence numbers came in higher-than-expected, too.
In prior weeks, strong data like this would have caused mortgage rates to rise. Last week, however, it didn’t. Mostly because foreign demand for mortgage-backed bonds has remained strong.
This week, there’s only one major data release and its timing may prove to be problematic.
Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Non-Farm Payrolls report. With housing’s rebound seemingly underway, the jobs report takes on added significance. Joblessness can undermine consumer confidence and spending and cause harm to the recovering U.S. economy.
This is one reason why rate shoppers should be cautious toward the end of the week — the jobs report will move markets. The other reason to be cautious is because Friday is the day before Labor Day and Wall Street will be short-staffed.
Fewer traders means more volatility — if rates start to pop, they’ll really pop.
The New Conforming Mortgage Guidelines, Effective September 1, 2009
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As a reminder, Fannie Mae is rolling out new lending guidelines Tuesday, September 1, 2009.
Starting next week, being approved for a home loan could be much more difficult.
The new rules mark the first major underwriting update since April of this year. The changes are mostly geared at fraud prevention.
Among the updates:
- Stock options are no longer eligible for “reserves”
- Relocating families can’t use the “trailing” spouse’s projected income
- “Tip” income must be documented and verified
- Lenders must call employers to verify employment
- Lenders must verify tax transcripts against IRS records
But there are other changes, too. As examples:
- Owners and buyers of 2-unit homes are subject to new minimum FICOs with larger downpayment and equity requirements.
- Only 70% of stock, bond and mutual values may be used as reserves
- Only 60% of retirement assets may be used as reserves
Consider this post to be your advance warning. Not everyone that qualifies for a mortgage on Monday, August 31 will qualify on Tuesday, September 1.
Therefore, if you have a pending need for a mortgage — for either a purchase or a refinance — it’s probably best to talk with a lender as soon as possible. The deadline is based on the date of application — not the date of closing.
Read the complete Fannie Mae announcement online.
Home Supplies Plummet, Putting Pressure On Home Prices To Rise
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It’s no wonder that builder confidence is soaring — their inventory of homes for sale is depleting at a furious pace.
For the 4th straight month, New Home Sales gained, posting the best numbers since last September’s meltdown and handily beating economist expectations.
The available supply of homes is down to 7.5 months nationwide.
It’s further evidence that the housing market may have bottomed at some point this past spring.
To be sure, the strong housing data is, in part, a reaction to three outside factors:
- Low mortgage rates
- An expiring government tax credit
- Hefty builder incentives
But, buyers are buyers and the clearing out of outstanding inventory provides terrific support for home prices. It also gives them reason to rise.
Coupled with the blowout Existing Home Sales numbers from July, therefore, this months’ New Homes Sale report may be a signal that the Buyers’ Market is ending and the Sellers’ Market is beginning.
If you’re planning to buy a home this year or next, it may be time to get a move on. Wait too long, and prices may be up.
Home Prices Keep Rising, Rising, Rising
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18 of 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller Index showed rising home values in June. It’s the 5th consecutive month with strong numbers and the best showing for the benchmark housing index since home values began deflating in 2006.
Some would argue it’s a sign that housing has finally bottomed out. Even Case-Shiller representatives acknowledge that home prices are “on an upswing”.
Despite the Case-Shiller Index’s popularity with economists and the press, though, it’s falls short of being a perfect housing indicator. As examples:
- Its data is reported with a 2-month lag
- Its sample set includes just 20 U.S. cities
- Real estate isn’t a “national” market — it’s local
Nevertheless, flaws aside, Case-Shiller is still important. It helps identify broader trends in housing and many people believe the housing is the keystone of the economy right now.
This is why June’s Case-Shiller Index gives cause for hope. The nascent housing recovery has a long road ahead but June’s Case-Shiller data shows that we’re heading in the right direction.
The Long-Term Trendline For Existing Home Sales Points To A Housing Recovery
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The housing market continues to surprise. Last week, the latest good news came in the form of the monthly Existing Home Sales report.
An “existing home” is a home sold by an existing owner as opposed to a developer. It’s non-new construction property.
The data on Existing Home Sales was noteworthy for its trends:
- Sales volume rose over four straight months for the first time in 5 years
- Sales volume rose year-to-year for the first time in 4 years
- Median home prices fell for the first time since April
Furthermore, first-time home buyers and buyers of “distressed” homes accounted for nearly one-third of the market activity each.
But, before we declare a bottom in housing, it’s important that we remember the First Rule of Real Estate — All Real Estate Is Local.
The Existing Home Sales report is not neighborhood-specific. It lumps cities like San Diego and Saint Paul into a giant sample set and fails to account for regional differences in real estate, let alone neighborhood ones.
This is the primary reason why on-the-ground real estate agents are better sources for a market pulse versus a report from a national trade group. The national group can’t know the happenings of every street and every home in a market.
That said, however, the national data isn’t completely useless.
Looking at the long-term patterns in the Existing Home Sales report, we can infer that ample supplies, low mortgage rates and tax credits are spurring home sales in a lot of U.S. markets.
Eventually, this will lead home prices higher.