For Home Buying California

Financial advice is rarely one-size-fits-all, but this interview with Suze Orman is worth a watch.

In 5 minutes with NBC’s The Today Show, Ms. Orman covers a ton of relevant ground for homeowners and the public-at-large:

• Who should — and shouldn’t — be paying down their mortgage
• What backlash to expect from the Dow’s 40% run-up since March
• Why July 2009 is so different of an environment from July 2008

Then, as a bonus, Orman explains the relationship between bond prices to bond yields. It’s the heart of why mortgage rates rise when inflation is present.

A lot of what Orman talks about is spot-on, but that doesn’t necessarily make it appropriate for your individual situation. Before acting on Orman’s opinions, talk to your financial professional first.

After starting the week with a run lower toward 5 percent, mortgage rates have reversed course.

It started mid-day Tuesday and the culprit is Basic Economics. Here’s why.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and — like most things — mortgage-backed bonds prices are based in Supply and Demand.

When bond supplies grow faster than the corresponding demand for them, bond prices tend to fall and when bond prices are down, bond yields are up.

Meanwhile, this week, the U.S. Treasury is making its largest weekly auction in history. $115 billion in new debt, to be exact. This means that before the week is through, $115 billion in new bond supply will have been introduced into the market and — so far — demand hasn’t kept pace with the new supply.

Prices are plunging.

For home buyers and rate shoppers, this is especially bad news because mortgage-backed debt is less desirable to investors than is treasury debt. As a result, when treasury debt loses values, mortgage-backed debt tends to lose value, too. Not always, but most of the time.

So, beginning with Tuesday afternoon’s auction, debt supplies have been growing faster than buyer demand.

Bond markets are suffering from an abundance of debt supply and it’s been a big reason why mortgage rates are rising. The week’s not over yet, either. $28 billion is due for auction Thursday.

If demand at the auction is similarly low, watch for mortgage rates to spike again.

For May, the Case-Shiller Index showed home values up in 15 of its 20 tracked U.S. markets. It’s the first time in nearly 3 years that the index showed such strength and a signal that home prices may be turning higher for good.

According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, “this could be a signal that home price declines are finally stabilizing.”

However, just because the Case-Shiller Index indicates home values are stabilizing, doesn’t necessarily make it true. Real estate is a local phenomenon and the Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 U.S. cities.

Residents of every other town are unaccounted for.

Additionally, even within the 20 tracked cities, there are distinct neighborhoods and pockets that are under-performing the general market — just as there are those that are over-performing. The Case-Shiller Index can’t get that granular.

Despite its imperfections, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.

If that’s true, May’s figures are the next step in the right direction.

Once again, the housing market is showing that its worst days may be over.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in June leapt by 11 percent from the month prior. It stands as the biggest one-month jump in 8 years.

A “new home sale” is when a home in any stage of construction — not yet started, under construction, or already completed — goes under contract, often with a builder. It’s the opposite of an “existing home sale”.

In addition to surging sales, the monthly supply of new homes fell to its lowest level in 11 years.

Because home values are based on the relative supply and demand for a particular home in a particular area, anytime that demand for homes grows faster than supply, we would expect prices to rise.

Indeed, that’s what we’ve been seeing.

The combination of low interest rates, seller-paid incentives and a first-time home buyer tax credit is bringing buyers into the market faster than new supply can come online. It’s one reason why home prices have stopped falling across many parts of the country.

It’s also why home buyers may find it tougher to get “a good deal” in real estate later this year and into 2010. If demand stays high and supplies fall further, sellers should regain the upper-hand in contract negotiations.

Mortgage markets carved out a wide range last week, creating a mixed bag for mortgage rate shoppers.

Rates were much improved on Monday and Tuesday, much worse on Wednesday and Thursday, and idle for most of Friday.

Overall, mortgage rates improved slightly but don’t expect the volatility to subside.

There is a ton of economic data scheduled for release this week — at least one new data point per day, actually. Each could cause mortgage rates to rise or fall:

• Monday : New Home Sales
• Tuesday : Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday : The Fed’s Beige Book
• Thursday : Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday : Personal Consumption Expenditures

If the data points to a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy, expect that mortgage rates will rise. If data looks weak, rates should fall.

There’s another factor influencing rates this week, too, and that’s the U.S. Treasury’s plan to sell its most weekly debt in history. Across four separate auctions, the government is selling $115 billion in notes. If the notes are in low demand, bond prices will fall, pushing up rates.

Indirectly, this should cause mortgage rates to rise. If demand is very weak, mortgage rates should rise by a lot.

This week in mortgage markets is among the most eventful we’ve seen all year. Expect mortgage rates to be on the move.