Archive for May, 2009

FOMC Minutes can move mortgage ratesMortgage rates fell after the Federal Reserve released its April 28-29, 2009 meeting’s internal notes Wednesday.

Officially known as “Fed Minutes”, the report is an in-depth account Federal Reserve’s last get-together, detailing the discussions and decisions that create our country’s monetary policy.

It’s the lengthy companion to the Federal Reserve’s brief, post-meeting press release.

For comparison’s sake, the Federal Reserve’s April 29 announcement contained 383 words. The minutes of that same meeting held 5,754 words. The extra words offer extra details about what the next monetary steps might be for the nation’s policymakers.

This is a big deal to markets because investors are always looking for clues about what’s next — especially considering how the April Fed Minutes showed that group discussed increasing its $1.25 trillion mortgage market commitment to something bigger.

Remember that the Fed’s mortgage-buying program is largely credited with keeping mortgage rates low this year. If there’s more buying ahead, that should help rates stay similarly low. Mortgage rates fell Wednesday in anticipation of a move like that. For now, though, the Fed Minutes are just talk.

As economic conditions change later this year, so might the Federal Reserve’s stance.

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Single-Family Housing Starts April 2009A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started and, for the fourth straight month, single-family home construction remained flat in April.

For the battered housing market, this is the latest in a series of signals that a long-awaited turnaround is coming.

The current plateau in Housing Starts may indicate that builders are more confident in the economy, and that Americans are, too. Especially in light of the freefall over the past few years.

Single-Family Housing Starts have hugged the 360,000 mark since January 2009.

However, there is a footnote to the story.

As noted by the Commerce Department in its official report, the April Housing Starts conclusion is suspect because of the data’s large Margin of Error. Had the government’s sample set included a different series of data, in other words, it may have concluded that housing starts had fallen instead of staying flat. Or risen.

We won’t know the final results of the report until 3 months from now but if the initial figures hold, it will fortify the argument that the housing market has, indeed, found its bottom.

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According to the American Resort Development Association, there are more than 4 million timeshare owners across the United States. There are ample buying opportunities, but what if you want to sell your timeshare?

In this 4-minute piece with NBC’s The Today Show, Barbara Corcoran talks about the difficulties today’s timeshare sellers face with respect to a down economy, revealing sales strategies in the meanwhile.

Among the advice:

  • Know what your share’s worth, then lower it by 20%
  • Don’t overlook obvious marketing techniques
  • Consider auction sites to sell a timeshare
  • Donating to charity open up tax breaks

Selling timeshares is always more difficult than selling a “regular” home; and today’s recessionary economy doesn’t make it any easier. Watch the complete clip for more tips on selling timeshares at MSNBC.com.

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Retail Sales are down worse-than-expected for April 2009After a dreadful start to the month of May, mortgage markets improved last week, pushing mortgage rates lower overall.

It was the first week since late-April in which mortgage rates fell.

The biggest reason rates improved last week was because the economic optimism that was responsible for the stock market’s 30% gain since March faded somewhat.

Retail Sales came in weaker-than-expected as did Initial Jobless claims. Both of these data points show that the economy may not be recovering as quickly as investors had wanted to believe.

Combined with gas prices ballooning more than 10 percent over the last 3 weeks, it’s clear that consumer spending will be muted this summer and into fall.

Consumer spending is important because it accounts for two-third of the economy. If it’s slowed for any reason, the economy is less likely to emerge from the current recession as quickly as had been anticipated.

This is good news for mortgage rates because a slow economy tends to draw investors out of stocks and into bonds, including the mortgage-backed kind. More mortgage bond demand leads to higher bond prices and, therefore, lower bond yields and mortgage rates.

This week, there isn’t much data to watch and, because of Memorial Day, trading will be very light towards Thursday and Friday.

It’s during “calm” weeks like this that mortgage rates can make huge movements up or down. With no official announcements against which traders can make bets, every piece of news is a surprise.

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate, take some risk off the table by locking in this week.

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May
15

Mortgage Lending Starts To Show Signs Of A Thaw

Posted by: Kristen Emery | Comments Comments Off

The Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey April 2009Getting approved for a home loan isn’t getting easier, but it doesn’t appear to be getting much more difficult, either.

In its quarterly survey to member banks, the Federal Reserve asked senior bank loan officers whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines had tightened in the last 3 months.

Nearly 50 percent of banks said guidelines tightened last quarter, a much lower figure than during all of 2008 and a signal that mortgage lending may be turning a corner.

Guidelines remain restrictive, however.

Versus 18 months ago, lenders subject would-be borrowers to all of the following:

  • Higher minimum credit score thresholds
  • Larger minimum downpayments
  • Lower debt-to-income requirements
  • Mandatory fees based on certain loan traits

In addition, the availability of subordinate financing has all but disappeared when a home’s loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent.

Combined, these changes preclude a lot of Americans from getting access to today’s low rates but that could change in the coming months if the Fed’s reported trend continues.

Some experts believe that credit tightening started the recession. Credit loosening, therefore, could help lead us out.

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