Archive for November, 2008

When it comes to housing data, there are always two questions to consider:

  1. How does this impact buyers?
  2. How does this impact sellers?

This is why housing data is rarely positive or negative on a universal level — one group of Americans is going to see benefit.

Today, it’s home sellers.

From the government, we learn that Housing Starts fell to their lowest levels since 1947 last month. A “Housing Start” is a new housing unit on which construction has started. Building permits are down, too.

This is all good news for people selling their homes in the coming months. As fewer homes are built nationwide, there is less inventory from which home buyers can choose. With fewer homes for sale shifts the supply-and-demand curve, adding a stronger support floor to home prices.

For home buyers, though, the Housing Starts data may not be as welcome.

With fewer new homes coming on the market, owners of “used” homes may feel less pressure to lower asking prices or to make other concessions. Home buyers often pay more when home supply is falling, or find that sellers are less willing to add “throw-ins” to a contract.

For all of the analysis that surrounds real estate data, in the end, home prices are based on the supply of homes versus the demand for homes. When supply outpaces demand, home prices fall, and vice verse.

Homebuilders know this and October’s Housing Starts data reflects it.

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If the presence of inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, then the absence of inflation should cause mortgage rates to fall. And, in most markets that’s true.

Today, it’s not.

Despite a deep, month-over-month dip in consumer prices not seen since 1947, mortgage rates are inching higher this morning.

The main reason why rates are rising today is that the Cost of Living didn’t just ease last month — it plunged.

In fact, the monthly drop was so severe that Wall Street now questions whether this summer’s record-breaking inflation will lead to equally-strong deflation this winter.

In economic terms, deflation is the opposite of inflation — it’s when prices and wages chase each other lower. The two can be equally bad for the economy. What’s often best for Americans are moderate, steady readings.

Because of the rapid decline, markets fear that Consumer Prices may have swung way past moderate in October and started a downward spiral. As always, however, market opinions can change quickly and when they do, they usually take mortgage rates with them.

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Nov
18

The 2009 FHA Loan Limits For Every U.S. County

Posted by: Kristen Emery | Comments Comments Off

The FHA Loan Limits for 2009 are effective January 1, 2009In March 2008, HUD temporarily raised FHA loan limits around the country. Effective January 1, 2009, FHA loan limits revert.

FHA home loans are mortgages made by private lenders and insured by the federal government.

Historically, FHA home loans have been “easier” for which to qualify than their conforming mortgage counterparts and, therefore, tend to be associated with borrowers of tarnished credit quality.

Today, that’s the not the case.

The FHA home loan underwriting process can be as tough — or tougher — than a conforming mortgage underwrite. There is extra documentation required and the home appraisal process is often more thorough.

Where FHA home loans shine is in their limited downpayment requirements.

To purchase a home with a FHA-insured mortgage requires a 3 percent downpayment as of today; in January, it moves to 3.5 percent. Versus the typical conforming mortgage requirement of 5 percent or more, FHA serves as somewhat of a home affordability product for Americans. In addition, FHA allows larger “cash out” refinances than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

The 2009 FHA loan limits (in most areas of the country) are:

  • 1-unit : $271,050
  • 2-unit : $347,000
  • 3-unit : $419,400
  • 4-unit : $521,250

Note that the loan limits don’t apply to all areas of the country equally. Higher-cost regions feature higher loan limits, based on typical home values. Homes in Los Angeles County, for example, can be FHA-insured up to $625,500 in 2009, and there are exceptions made for Alaska and Hawaii.

The official FHA announcement published all of the counties with access to higher loan limits, spread across two spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet lists each county at the $625,500 maximum; the second list is everyone else.

If your home county is on neither list, use the “base” numbers above.

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Nov
17

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : November 17, 2008

Posted by: Kristen Emery | Comments Comments Off

In another week of up-and-down trading, mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher last week.

Ping-pong action like this has defined mortgage markets lately. It’s increasingly common for rates to soar one day, and then come crashing down the next.

In response to market volatility, mortgage lenders issued as many as 8 distinct rate sheets in a holiday-shortened, 4-day trading week. Lately, shopping for a low mortgage rate has been as much about timing as anything else.

There wasn’t much economic news to digest last week save for Friday’s Retail Sales data.

The numbers reflected what most of us already know — consumers are not spending as freely as in the past. And, because consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, retail restraint can mean the difference between a growing economy and a slowing one.

October marked the 5th straight month of declines for Retail Sales.

This week, markets will have their hands full with new data, 7 Fed speakers, and ongoing rescue effort discussions from Washington.

From a data perspective, the two most important data points are the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index. Both measure the “cost of living” as it applies to businesses and consumers, respectively, and both can signal inflation when the readings are too high.

Falling energy prices will likely cause PPI and CPI to post negative readings, but if those negative numbers post higher than expected, mortgage rates should rise in response.

Regardless, mortgage rate shoppers should standby in Ready Mode. Changes to the mortgage market — like changes to the stock market — have been furious and swift, measurable in minutes, not hours. The only way to beat a market like this is to not play in it.

Once you find a rate-and-payment combination that suits your household budget, consider locking it in with your loan officer. The risk of not committing can be too great in a market moving as quickly as this one.

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The 2010 HUD GFE Loan Summary section

To help demystify the mortgage process, the federal government is giving the much-maligned Good Faith Estimate document a makeover. Effective January 1, 2010, the current, 2-page form will be replaced by a new, easier-to-understand version, spanning 3 pages.

The biggest strength of the new Good Faith Estimate is that it uses everyday English to explain how the mortgage works. For example, in one section titled “Loan Summary”, the Good Faith Estimate specifically answers:

  • What is your interest rate?
  • Can your interest rate rise?
  • Does your loan have a prepayment penalty?

Using today’s disclosures, the answers are spread across 3 separate forms.

In addition, the new-look Good Faith Estimate identifies what charges are legally allowed change at the time of settlement, and how a mortgage applicant can opt for higher fees in exchange for a lower mortgage rate, and vice versa.

These educational elements are lacking from the current model.

But for all of its clarity, the Good Faith Estimate doesn’t address the issue of suitability. As in, is this the right loan for the right borrower? The new Good Faith Estimate won’t prevent homeowners from choosing “bad loans” — it will only educate them about the loan’s facts.

For suitable advice — as always — talk with a trusted mortgage professional who will both listen to your needs and help you make plans for them. Getting the “best terms” on an unsuitable loan can be far worse that getting great terms on a loan that fits.

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