Archive for September, 2008
How Mortgage Rates Responded To The “No” Vote On The Bailout Bill
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Monday afternoon, the U.S. House of Representatives defeated the $700 billion “Bailout Bill”, surprising Wall Street and the world.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average responded by falling 777.68 points — its largest one-day loss in history and, this morning, every newspaper in America is covering the story as front page news.
Lost in the coverage, however, is how the “No” vote created a terrific opportunity for mortgage rate shoppers.
Yesterday, as money fled the tanking stock market, most of it ended up getting parked in the relative safety of government-backed bonds which includes, of course, the mortgage bonds. This rising demand for mortgage bonds caused rates to fall.
To investors, stock markets represent risk and bond markets represent safety. So, when market sentiment changes, as it did yesterday, Wall Street players often shift their dollars from one forum to the other. This is why yesterday’s stock sell-off was good news for mortgage rate shoppers — the added demand for “safe” securities drove down rates.
Conforming mortgage rates were lower by about an eighth-percent Monday.
Now, today, mortgage rates are opening flat, suggesting that markets are in a Wait-and-See Mode. Wall Streets knows that the defeated bill will re-emerge later this week and, when it does, expect traders to respond accordingly.
If the new-look bill is viewed as favorable to U.S. businesses without harming taxpayers, expect stock markets to improve and mortgage rates to rise. If the bill fails to accomplish that goal, however, expect mortgage rates to improve.
Looking Back And Looking Ahead : September 29, 2008
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Mortgage rates bounced around last week, ending up worse overall. It was the second straight week in which rates deteriorated. Sentiment was driven largely by the proposed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 — a.k.a. The $700 Billion Bailout.
The good news is that Congress drafted its bill Sunday evening and within the 110 pages, there is an important clause that should be good for mortgage rates.
On Page 40, it says, summarized:
- The U.S. Treasury gets $250 billion up-front
- It must ask the President to approve its next $100 billion
- And Congress must approve the remaining $350 billion
In other words, the U.S. Treasury checkbook is not “open”. By limiting the Treasury’s spending to $250 billion up-front, with the next $450 billion subject to third-party approval, some of the market’s inflation concerns from last week should ease, providing downward pressure on mortgage rates in general.
But, that said, there’s a few important data releases this week that could counter-effect these improvements.
First, on Monday, it’s September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data. The report sounds fancy with a name like Personal Consumption Expenditures, but it’s really just a Cost of Living measurement, adjusted for human behavior.
For example, if whole grain cereal gets too expensive, PCE assumes that Americans will substitute for another breakfast food. This is one reason why PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
If PCE is higher-than-expected, it’s considered to be a signal of inflation and mortgage rates should rise.
In addition, on Friday, the jobs report is released. It’s widely expected that the September’s job growth was negative (for the 9th straight month) and that unemployment remained in the 6.000 percent range.
Rates up or down, it’s too hard to predict. Therefore, if you see a mortgage rate with a comfortable accompanying payment, consider locking it in.
With as fast as markets have moved this year, you can be pretty sure the rate — whatever it is — won’t last for long.
If My Mortgage Lender Fails, Are My Payments Still Due?
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Thursday, federal regulators seized mortgage lender Washington Mutual. The Seattle-based thrift became the third “big name” lender to close its doors since July, joining IndyMac and Lehman Brothers.
In 2007, these 3 lenders represented about 10 percent of the mortgage market and their subsequent failures are confusing American homeowners.
The most prevalent question:
If my mortgage lender fails, are my payments still due?
And the answer is an unequivocal “yes”. If a mortgage lender is seized, goes bankrupt, or is otherwise closed, it doesn’t change the terms of the bank’s mortgages whatsoever — just maybe the mailing address.
This is because a mortgage (and its corresponding note) is a legal contract between the lender and the lendee, signed on the date of closing. It is binding and cannot be altered by either party. The only way to “end” the contract is to pay the loan in full.
This can happen in one of 3 ways:
- The home is sold and the mortgage is repaid
- The home is refinanced and the mortgage is repaid
- The home loan is paid down to $0 balance by the homeowner
So, when a mortgage company fails, its loans are paid-off in full and, therefore, all of the failed company’s mortgage contracts remain in effect. Payments are still due.
When this happens, failed lenders will usually transfer their mortgage assets to a new lender’s servicing department. This means that homeowners will write the same check for the same mortgage but to a different company.
To reduce confusion around transactions like this, the government puts two safeguards in place. First, it requires the former lender to send a 15-day advance notice of the change to the homeowner. And second, it requires the new lender to do the same.
In situations like this, the onus is ultimately on the homeowner to open and read his mail, and make changes accordingly. It’s especially important for people who pay their bills online as opposed by paying them manually; you likely won’t get notified if you’re sending payments to the wrong place.
Falling Home Supplies Are Bad News For Home Buyers (But Good News For Home Sellers)
Posted by: | CommentsThe August Existing Home Sales report was released Wednesday, showing a decline in the number of homes sold nationwide, and a reduction in the median sales price.
Not surprisingly, the media singled these two statistics out, playing them as a big negative.
They’re not.
The decline in sales wasn’t good, but it wasn’t terrible, either — sales were actually up in half of the regions around the country.
And, citing “median sales price” is somewhat pointless because median sales price only measures the price point at which half the homes sold for more, and half sold for less.
No, it’s the third statistic in the report that deserves as much — if not more — attention that the previous two. According to yesterday’s press release, the national home supply is decreasing.
This is terrific news for home sellers.
In its report, the National Association of REALTORS said that the nation’s existing supply of homes for sale fell by 7 percent in August.
At the current pace of sales, that represents a 10.4-month supply, down from 10.9 months in July. With a reduced supply of homes for sale, all things equal, home prices would increase.
This is Supply and Demand in its most basic form.
Economists and experts have long noted that reducing the housing supply is one of the key elements to a sustainable housing recovery and we’ve seen several indications that this is happening, including builders not building as much.
Longer-term, this is good news for home sellers because a reduction in housing supply tends to lead to higher prices.
FHA Makes Homeownership More Affordable — But Not Until October 1, 2008
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Earlier this year — and for the first time in its history — the FHA changed its funding fees and mortgage insurance structure.
Effective October 1, 2008, it’s repealing those changes.
Partly to keep FHA home loans affordable, and partly to comply with new laws, the FHA is rolling back its up-front fees and ongoing mortgage insurance requirements and replacing them with new ones.
The new up-front FHA fees are as follows:
- 1.750% : All purchase and “standard” refinances
- 1.500% : All “streamline” refinances
- 3.000% : All FHASecure programs for delinquent mortgagors
These fees are paid as a one-time cost at closing, and are calculated by multiplying the loan size by the fee. A $200,000 FHA purchase, for example, now carries a $3,500 one-time charge.
Ongoing mortgage insurance requirements have changed, too. These changes are based on the loan type and the amount of equity in the home.
- 15-year fixed with 90% borrowed or less: 0.000% annually
- 15-year fixed with more than 90% borrowed: 0.250% annually
- 30-year fixed with 95% borrowed or less: 0.500% annually
- 30-year fixed with more than 95% borrowed: 0.550% annually
Mortgage insurance premiums are calculated by multiplying the initial loan size by the annual premium. The same $200,000 FHA purchase outlined above, using a 95% 30-year fixed mortgage, would require a monthly mortgage payment add-on of $83.33 until the loan is paid in full.
FHA-insured mortgages have grown in popularity this year because, while the guidelines of other mortgage products have tightened, FHA guidelines have remained relatively loose. FHA allows 3.500 percent downpayments on purchases, for example, and allows “cash out” refinances to 95 percent.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not.