Archive for April, 2008
Making English Out Of Fed-Speak (April 2008 Edition)
Posted by: | CommentsThe Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent to 2.000% this afternoon.
Because it is tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate also fell by a quarter-percent. Prime Rate is now 5.000%.
Holders of home equity lines of credit and credit card debt benefited from the change and will see lower interest costs in next month’s statements.
Mortgage rate shoppers are also benefitting.
Each time the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds Rate, it’s meant to stimulate the economy in growth. Too much stimulation can create too much growth and that often leads to inflation (which causes mortgage rates to rise).
This is one reason why mortgage rates had not fallen over the past few months. Each Fed Funds Rate cut made it more likely that the economy would overheat in the second half of 2008.
So, because the Federal Reserve signaled that a rate-cutting “pause” may be ahead, investors are reducing expectations for a Fed-induced inflation cycle for later this year, pushing rates lower.
The FOMC’s next scheduled get-together is a two-day meeting June 24-25, 2008.
Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
April 30, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/internal/mdc/info-fedparse0804.html
Why It Doesn’t Matter What The Federal Reserve Does Today
Posted by: | Comments
The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its two-day meeting at 2:15 P.M. ET today.
Markets expect the Fed to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250 percent in its press release but it’s not what the Fed does that matters to economy right now.
It’s what the Fed says.
If the Fed states that future rate cuts are needed to stabilize the economy, mortgage rates should rise because rate cuts tend to create inflation. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.
By contrast, if the Fed states that it will “pause” before making additional rate cuts (or hikes), mortgage rates should fall.
We’ll dissect the message in full late this afternoon but the most important message to remember is this:
The Federal Reserve does not directly control mortgage rates.
The Fed only controls the Fed Funds Rate, the interest rate on a very specific type of loan made from one bank to another. The Fed Funds Rate, however, is directly related to a consumer-focused interest rate called Prime Rate.
Prime Rate is the basis of interest rates on credit cards and home equity lines of credit.
If the Federal Open Market Committee votes to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent, it means that the interest rate on Americans’ collective credit card and home equity line debt will fall by a quarter-percent, too.
The 80/20 Rule Applies To Foreclosures
Posted by: | Comments
RealtyTrac released Q1 2008 foreclosure statistics and the data follows an interesting statistical phenomenon most commonly known as the “80/20 Rule”.
The 80/20 Rule states that 80 percent of the effects come from 20 percent of the causes.
In this case, 80 percent of bank repossessions in the first three months of 2008 came from 20 percent of the states in the union.
Accounting for 156,463 repossessed homes nationwide:
- California (40,023 homes)
- Texas (14,935 homes)
- Michigan (12,016 homes)
- Ohio (10,299 homes)
- Florida (10,185 homes)
- Georgia (8,265 homes)
- Arizona (7,956 homes)
- Colorado (7,022 homes)
- Tennessee (4,533 homes)
- Indiana (4,446 homes)
- Illinois (4,216 homes)
Overall, 0.55 percent of homes were repossessed by banks in the first quarter.
Looking Back And Looking Ahead : April 28, 2008
Posted by: | CommentsMortgage markets lost ground last week on inflation concerns and a general feeling that “the worst may be over” on Wall Street.
As investors moved money into the stock market, mortgage rates ticked higher for the second straight week.
The biggest story from last week was the rising cost of gasoline.
Rising energy costs combined with rising food prices are creating worries about the American consumer’s ability to spur the economy forward.
That sets up the biggest story of this week — the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The FOMC starts a 2-day meeting Tuesday and is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250 percent at its adjournment.
Cuts to the Fed Funds Rate are meant to promote growth in the economy by decreasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. For example, credit card rates are tied to the Fed Funds Rate so when the Fed Funds Rate falls, American households pay less interest and (theoretically) have more money to spend on “things”.
But the FOMC meeting is not the only big news to watch for.
On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is released. PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge because it’s a smarter version of the “Cost of Living” index. If PCE rises more than expected, it’s an indication of inflation and inflation tends to make mortgage rates rise.
Then, on Friday, it’s the jobs report. The economy is expected to post the fourth consecutive month of negative job growth. Markets have been highly sensitive to the jobs data lately so expect wild swings in mortgage rates in its wake.
And lastly, sprinkled throughout the week, more than 100 influential members of the S&P 500 will report their earnings. If earnings and outtlooks are strong, mortgage rates should rise. If earnings are weak, mortgage rates should fall.
New Home Sales : How The Newspaper Headlines Mislead You
Posted by: | Comments
Newspaper headlines rarely tell the full story and today’s papers provide a terrific example.
From the Baltimore Sun (and others):
New-home sales lowest since 1991
8.5% March decline exceeds forecasts; prices also tumble
As always, there’s more to the story than the headline.
The Census Bureau reported a 8.5 percent decline in New Home Sales last month, but in the “fine print” of the report, the Census Bureau cites a margin of error of 16.1 percent.
By including a margin of error, the Census Bureau is acknowledging that the “headline number” is not precise and that the actual change in New Home Sales data lies somewhere between the values -24.6% and +7.6%.
Notice that the range of possible reading includes positive numbers.
This means that New Home Sales could have just as easily shown growth in March — if only the Census Bureau had interviewed a different set of home builders.
The Census Bureau acknowledges this possibility, adding that it “does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.” The data, therefore, is worthless.
The housing market may be strong or the housing market may be weak. Most likely, it is both of these things. It all depends on your street in your neighborhood because all of real estate is local.
Either way, look deeper than the headlines. They’re a good source of information, but the real analysis requires a deeper look.
Source
New Residential Sales In March 2008
Census.gov
April 24, 2008
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf