The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its two-day meeting this afternoon and is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate. This does not mean that mortgage rates are being lowered, too.

The definition of Fed Funds Rate from the Federal Reserve:

The federal funds rate is the rate charged by one depository institution on an overnight sale of immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution; the rate may vary from depository institution to depository institution and from day to day. The target federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Notice that the words “consumer” and “mortgage” are nowhere to be found. That’s because the Fed has nothing to do with them.

The Fed does not control mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve’s policy changes impact banks, which then impacts consumers in the form of “looser” or “tighter” credit standards.

In lowering the Fed Funds Rate, the Federal Reserve stimulates the economy. In raising the Fed Funds Rate, it slows the economy. The big risk, therefore, is lowering too much (which promotes inflation) or raising too much (which retards growth). It’s a difficult dance.

The FOMC will release its policy statement at 2:15 P.M. ET.

Source
FRB: FAQs: Monetary Policy
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqmpo.htm#3

When a loan officer locks a mortgage rate for you, that rate is tied to an expiration date.

The expiration may be 30 days, or 75 days, or 90 days, or more into the future, but so long as the rate is “locked”, the bank is committed to delivering that rate to you at your closing.

What most people don’t know is that the longer the rate lock, in general, the higher the interest rate and/or fees and that’s because banks can’t predict the future.

The more time that passes between today and your rate lock expiration, the more likely it is that market conditions will have changed from where they are today, and the bank will be “below market” on your individual loan.

Therefore, banks compensate for this “time risk” by increasing their rate of return (i.e. your mortgage rate), and/or charging “extended lock fees” to borrowers.

To lenders, rate locks represents a huge risk — what if its prediction of the future is wrong?

Rate locks vary from lender to lender, but in general, they move in 15-day increments — 15-day, 30-day, 45-day, et cetera. After 90-days, rate locks tend to move in 30-day increments. The shorter the time, generally, the lower the rate and/or fees.

So, when you’re negotiating a new contract on a home, it makes more sense set a closing date 30 days in the future as opposed to 40 days; 45 days as opposed to 46. By keeping your rate lock commitment days as low as possible, you’ll help save money long-term.

There’s no sense in paying for extra rate lock days if you don’t need them.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate next week.

For holders of credit cards and home equity lines of credit, this is good news.

Both of these financial products feature interest rates tied to Prime Rate. Prime Rate is tied to the Fed Funds Rate.

When the Fed Funds Rate comes down, therefore, so does the rate of borrowing for credit cards and HELOCs.

For mortgage rate shoppers, a drop in the FFR could be bad news.

When the Fed lowers the Fed Funds Rate, it signals that the U.S. economy is weakening and that tends to weaken the U.S. dollar. When the dollar weakens, the value of dollar-denominated securities weaken, too.

Mortgage bonds are denominated in dollars, of course, so when the dollar loses value, mortgage bonds lose value as well. This causes mortgage rates to move higher.

After the Fed’s last meeting, it lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.500% and, predictably, mortgage rates headed higher in response.

According to Bloomberg, as of this morning, market players are predicting with 90 percent certainty that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds Rate by at least a quarter. That means that the currently low level for mortgage rates may not last much longer.

The Wall Street Journal used a lot of ink this morning on September’s Existing Home Sales data, including the chart below. It’s frightening to the lay person who may not know how to interpret data like this.

Remember: real estate is local.

Yes, on a national level the number of homes for sale in increasing and the housing market is showing weakness, but on a local level, the story is always different.

And, despite chunking the national data into 28 “Major Markets”, the figures below still can’t be considered “local”. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale market, for example, is a 31.6 mile tract of land.

Real estate markets vary by neighborhood and even by street. It’s why one zip code may be hot, and a neighboring zip code may be flat. It’s also why we should ignore national real estate price patterns and focus on the local trend instead.