In light of today’s New Homes Sales data and Monday’s forthcoming Existing Homes Sales report, let’s review a term that real estate professionals use to describe housing inventory.

Absorption Rate is a real estate term for the length of time required to sell all of a given stock in a given area.

We can use it to determine how quickly homes are selling in a neighborhood, city, or region.

The formula to calculate Absorption Rate is simple:

• Add up the number of homes on the market
• Divide it by the number of homes taken off the market in the past 30 days because offers were accepted for the sale of those homes

For example, if 500 homes are on the market and 89 of these homes received offers in the past 30 days, the absorption rate is 500/89, or 5.6 months.

In generally, the smaller the absorption rate, the more seller-friendly the region.

With tomorrow morning’s New Home Sales report, markets will get a look at the number of newly-constructed homes sold in July.

The figure is expected to be in the 825,000 range. This is lower than June’s 834,000 figure.

But — as always — there is more to the story.

When the Census Bureau reports on New Homes Sales, it only counts the number of new sales contracts written. Specifically, New Home Sales doesn’t measure what happens to contracts after they are signed.

So, for each buyer that rescinds his contract or does not qualify for financing, the New Home Sales data is over-stated by 1.

A “new home sale” may cancel before closing for a multitude of reasons, including:

• Buyers can’t sell their old homes and can’t get financing
• Buyers are angry when developers reduce price on similar properties
• Mortgage products are no longer available for the buyer’s borrowing profile

According to RealEstateJournal.com, cancellation rates were as high as 40% for big builders in November 2006. We can only theorize that the number has since increased as home sales slow overall and the mortgage product menu shrinks.

In other words, tomorrow’s New Homes Sales data is somewhat irrelevant to the overall U.S. housing market. It only measures contracts being written, not contracts being closed.

The Census Bureau even acknowledges this on their Web site.

Suddenly, Private Mortgage Insurance is back in vogue. If only by default.

The story background is well-documented in this Bankrate.com article from 2002. The article is five years old, but it still raises some salient points.

What the article doesn’t highlight is that second mortgages such as home equity loans are typically sold to Wall Street, bundled in with sub-prime and “near-prime” loans.

Today, as the number of buyers for these higher-risk loan pools shrinks, some mortgage lenders have stopped offering second mortgages in order to reduce their overall lending risk.

PMI payments tend to be higher than their piggyback counterparts, but The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 narrows that gap using tax deductibility. The act grants itemized deductions for some private mortgage insurance (PMI) and government mortgage insurance (MIP) expense premiums paid in 2007.

For all loans originated in the 2007 calendar year, mortgage insurance is tax-deductible provided that two tests are met:

1. The homeowner’s household income is $100,000 or less in 2007
2. The home loan is for a primary or secondary residence

For households earning more than $100,000, the deduction is phased out to the tune of 10% per $1,000 of additional income until it reaches 0% at $110,000

So, if a single person earns $90,000 in 2007 and buys a home using MI, the MI expenses are tax-deductible in 2007. However, there’s a catch! Because the tax code is due to expire December 31, 2007, there is no guarantee that the MI will be tax-deductible in 2008.

As always, talk with your tax professional about how tax deductions work and whether you qualify for a PMI deduction.

As the number of mortgage products continues to shrink, PMI will continue to grow in popularity. The graphic/poll above will shift, too.

Friday, the Federal Reserve lowered its Discount Rate by 0.50% in an effort to preserve liquidity among our nation’s banks.

This has nothing to do with mortgage rates that people like you and I get for our homes. Well, not directly at least.

The Discount Rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve. It is different from the Fed Funds Rate which is the rate at which banks borrow from each other.

After the adjustment last week, the Discount Rate now stands at 5.750%; the Fed Funds Rate is 5.250%. Note that the Fed “charges” more than other banks because it wants to be the “lender of last resort”.

And last week, it was.

When the Fed lowered the Discount Rate Friday, it signaled that it was concerned for the nation’s banks and their liquidity. A reduced Discount Rate strengthens the system by lowering bank operating expenses and increasing capitalization.

The Fed also extended its normal payback period from one day to 30 days. The additional 29 days buys extra time for banks to rebalance their books through asset sales or debt issuance.

On Friday, mortgage rates fell in response to the Discount Rate announcement, but not because the two are related.

Inflation devalues mortgage bonds and the Fed’s move signals that inflation pressures may be subsiding. When the inflation is falling, mortgage bonds improve in price and these higher prices yield lower rates.

This is why mortgage rates dipped. Not because the Fed lowered the Discount Rate, but because what the lowering signaled about the economy.